The Year in Review

2007 was an interesting year politically. Until Benazir Bhutto was assassinated a couple of days ago, news from Iraq directly or indirectly dominated everything. Petraeus' Surge seems to be working.... kinda. To get a bit of stability, he's made deals with former insurgents, concentrated forces in Baghdad, let the Shia run the South, and the Kurds run the North. Whether or not he can hang on to that thread of stability remains to be seen. I think not. There aren't enough American troops left to support troop rotations in the spring; the insurgents will be "allies" only as long as it's in their interest (not the American's interest), and all hell could break loose in the north if Turkey invades Kurdistan. Shia theocrats and thugs running the south are the least of the American worries.

The assassination of Bhutto probably won't directly affect the war in Iraq, but it will affect the broader "War on Terror." Pakistan doesn't fit neatly into Bush's Manichean view of the world. Are they with us, or against us? On one hand, they are on the front lines of fighting Al Quaeda and the Taliban. On the other, they were one of three countries in the world that recognized the Taliban when they were in power in Afghanistan, and many analysts say that Pakistan's ISI created the Taliban. Bin Laden is supposedly in the northern territories of Pakistan, but Musharraf doesn't dare invade the area to find him for fear of igniting his own Islamic rebellion. And in spite of all of Bush's rhetoric about supporting democracy around the world, Musharraf is a military dictator. The US had put a lot of faith in Bhutto to put a more human face on Pakistan. Where are they going to put that faith now? I think that the last thing that Pakistan needs right now is American advice.

The sub-prime lending crisis is something that was lurking in the background for years until it finally reared its ugly head this year. These loans brought many otherwise unqualified buyers into the housting market and helped fuel the resulting boom, then the bubble, and now the collapse. Not only are homeowners hurt, but the big financial institutions that bought the sliced and diced pooled mortgage funds are writing off billions. I just read the other day that the big credit card companies are declaring record numbers of cardholders in default. The consumers can no longer get a home equity loan to pay off their credit cards, and they have no where else to turn. Real wages certainly aren't rising. What's the FED going to do? Are they going to lower interest rates in spite of the inflation risk and the already record low value of the US dollar? How can the consumer-spending-fueled US economy continue to grow if consumers don't have any money? And don't forget the record budget and trade deficits that the Bushies have run up. I don't see another boom of any kind coming to the rescue anytime soon. This mess will take years and probably a major recession to sort out.

By comparison, the godless-faggot-loving-commie-pinko-bastards in the Great White North seem to be doing pretty well. How about the loonie's run this year?

The presidential primaries are fun to follow. Until a couple of days ago, I was pretty sure that Obama and McCain would be the candidates, with Obama winning in the end. I think Bhutto's death has raised McCain's already surging candidacy, and has probably diminished Obama's. I hope that not too many people will buy Hillary's claims of experience over Obama's but even I have to admit that Hillary's response to Bhutto's assassination was more "presidential" than Obama's. I think that if Hillary does get the Democratic nomination, Mike Bloomberg will launch a third party campaign, possibly with someone like Chuck Hagel as the VP. Because her negatives are so high, Hillary couldn't possibly win a three way race, and it would be between McCain and Bloomberg. In any case, the first presidential election that I get to vote in will be an interesting one!

2007 could be the Year of the Environment, with Al Gore winning the Nobel Peace Prize and Academy award. But I am getting tired of the arguments about whether or not people are causing global warming. In the final analysis, it doesn't matter. All of the things that we should be doing to reduce global warming will do everything from limiting our dependency on foreign oil (and fossil fuels, period) to reducing overall pollution. All good things, in my view.

I can't let 2007 pass without at least a partial listing of the scandals presided over by our Commander in Chief. By any measure, he is an uncommonly stupid but nonetheless dangerous, primate. In no particular order, here are just a few...
-the loss of habeus corpus
-the Iran NIE
-firing US Attorneys
-Plamegate
-New Orleans
-waterboarding and "enhanced interrogation techniques"
-extraordinary rendition
-warrantless wiretapping
-global warming
-Alberto Gonzales
-Jose Padilla
-Walter Reed
-destruction of CIA interrogation tapes
-David Vitter (he's the guy caught up in the Washington madam scandal. I loved the fact that his wife, commenting on Hillary's support of Bill in the 90's, said that if her husband was caught in a similar situation, she'd be more like Lorena Bobbit than Hillary Clinton)
-Larry Craig (I once saw a sign on a men's bathroom door warning that Republicans may be inside)
-Blackwater

I am pessimistic about the state of the world in 2008. Here are a few of things that I think will happen in 2008:
-Thousands will continue to die and billions will continue to be spent in Iraq.
-Nothing good will come out of Pakistan.
-Any gains made in Afghanistan in the last few years will be lost.
-The housing bubble will continue to deflate, and the US economy will be stagnate at best.
-Stock markets will drop precipitously once the repercussions of the sub-prime mess ripple though. Look for a DJA of 10,000.
-Nothing will be done about global warming.

It's easy to be a pessimist. You're usually right, and you're happy when you're wrong. Let's hope I'm wrong.