How'd I Do?

Most of the election results are in, so it's time to take a look at how I did.

For the Electoral College vote, I predicted 358-180 for Obama. It looks like the final results are 365-173. Hey - not bad! I came closer than super-duper poll watcher Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) with his prediction of 349-189.

The popular vote turned out to be 52.5% to 46.2%. My crystal ball had forecast 51%-46%. I thought that there might be a small "Bradley effect" of a percentage point or so, but I was wrong. If there was a Bradley effect, it was too small to be measured, or was more than overwhelmed by all the new voters. Nate Silver's computer model was almost dead-nuts on with a prediction 52.3%-46.2%. His methodology has set a new gold standard for poll interpretation.

For the Senate, I called 57-41-2. The final appears to be 56-40-2, with Al Franken's seat and the one in Georgia still up for grabs. Ted Steven's Alaskan seat might be challenged as well. There are some serious voting discrepancies going on up there. The polls were right on everywhere except Alaska, where Steven's numbers went from 12 points down before the election to an apparent +2 point win. My guess is close in any case, and could be right on when everything is decided.

For the House, my tally of 255-180, was more of a wild-assed guess than anything. The final numbers are 254-173, with 8 still to be decided.

So, here I sit with a kink in my shoulder from patting myself on the back.