Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Priority Paralysis

Obama's Speech
5th Anniversary of the Iraq War
Market Meltdown
Pakistan
Farley

There's so much stuff I'd like to write a bit about that it's hard to focus on any one thing and I've been suffering from what could be called Priority Paralysis. So I'll just take the shotgun approach and see if I can hit anything.

Obama never ceases to amaze me. The speech he gave yesterday was masterful and showed that oratory is not dead. Can you imagine having a president who writes his own speeches and delivers them perfectly in tone and cadence? Yesterday's speech wasn't one of those soaring epic speeches that energizes a crowd in a stadium and makes young women faint. It was a thoughtful and well-reasoned argument that addressed many of the thoughts on race that most of us have but few of us will express in polite company. Even though the speech transcended politics as usual, it won't help him with the right-wing commentariat, and it probably won't help him with a sizeable chunk of the white working class. But for thoughtful people concerned about the future of race relations in America, he hit a home run. What can Hillary possibly say in response? (I'm sure she or her surrogates will find something ugly to say)

Five years after the invasion of Iraq, there is no end in sight. The surge has only worked because the US is bribing it's former Sunni enemies, Baghdad neighborhoods have been ethnically cleansed, and the Mahdi Army is sticking to its self-declared cease-fire. The south is run by Shiite militias and the north is run by the Kurds. In areas in between, like Mosul, violence is worse than ever. Millions of Iraqis have fled the country, and millions more are internally displaced. Other than the fact that violence in Baghdad is down, it's hard to see anything good out of the surge. By any measure, the "government" in Iraq has failed to produce any stability. For a thoughtful analysis of the news by a Middle East expert, check out Juan Cole's blog.

The stock market continues its wild gyrations even though the Fed has used every tool in the box to try and fix it. In my generally pessimistic view, they will soon run out of tools, and the US economy will have a major recession, if not a depression. Or maybe a Japanese-style stagnation. Remember the go-go years of the late 80's and early 90's when real estate in Tokyo was selling for zillions of dollars per square foot and the Japanese were buying everything in sight? Twenty years later, the Japanese stock market has still not recovered. And if anyone is wondering what the subprime mortgage market mess that started all this last year is really all about, here's a link to the best and most entertaining explanation I've seen yet.

There were elections in Pakistan a few weeks ago, and there are the usual allegations of voter fraud and rigged results. I heard a report on NPR (and everyone knows that if it was on NPR it must be true) this morning that said the only things holding Pakistan together are cricket and the military. For something truly scary, think of an Islamic Republic that hates America and already has the bomb.


And now on to lighter stuff. Here's Farley in all his glory. So far, he's been a great dog. Already pretty much house-broken and very loving. Not at all like the psychotic Eddie. I am a bit concerned that he hasn't eaten much in the last couple of days, but maybe he's just got a bit of a nervous stomach from all the recent changes in his life. I'm taking him on his first visit to Angus' old vet today to have him checked out, have a chip implanted, and to get his shots updated.

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